Jacksonville Market Report: A Market Distillery Seminar Summary
The Sessions Team recently attended a seminar with Dr. Alex Stewart of Market Distillery, a Jacksonville-based company founded in 2022. Market Distillery provides credible, easy-to-understand market analysis specifically for the real estate industry and home buyers and sellers in the Jacksonville area, focusing on local data rather than broad national trends.
To understand the data, it's important to define the Jacksonville Metro Area, which includes Nassau, Baker, Duval, Clay, and St. Johns counties.
Key Market Statistics
Population & Demographics: In 2023, the Jacksonville Metro Area had a population of 1.71 million, making it the 4th largest in Florida and the 38th largest in the U.S. There were 729,778 households with a median age of 39.
Closed Sales & Inventory: As of Q2, there had been 13,617 closed sales in the Jacksonville market, with over 21,000 active listings. While this number of listings is normal compared to data from 2018, it indicates that buyers are waiting for the right opportunity, leading to growing inventory and slowing price growth.
Market Health: Despite the increase in inventory, the market remains healthy, with 40% of all properties selling within 30 days.
A Look at Local Neighborhoods
Jacksonville stands out as one of the top markets in Florida, with minimal decrease in closed sales year-over-year compared to other metro areas.
A significant factor in different neighborhoods is the ratio of new construction to existing homes. New construction permitting is down as active inventory grows, which means buyers have more leverage for price concessions.
Here is a breakdown of the median prices for new construction versus existing homes by county:
Clay: 29% New Construction ($361K) vs. 71% Existing ($361K)
Duval: 19% New Construction ($396K) vs. 81% Existing ($396K)
St. Johns: 36% New Construction ($521K) vs. 71% Existing ($683K)
Nassau: 19% New Construction ($518K) vs. 81% Existing ($587K)
Existing home sellers, especially in areas with multiple new construction options nearby like Nocatee, Rivertown or Green Cove Springs, may have a difficult time competing with new home builders who can offer greater concessions and have more pricing flexibility.
There are also some interesting tidbits about specific zip codes:
32233 (Atlantic Beach): Up 32% year-over-year in median sale price.
32081 (Ponte Vedra): Down 11% year-over-year, likely due to a population shift to the nearby 32082 (Nocatee) area.
32209 (North Jacksonville): Up 14% year-over-year in median sale price.
Economic Performance & Outlook
The Florida economy continues to outperform the U.S. average, ranking as the second-fastest-growing economy in the first quarter with 1.4% growth.
Economic Indicators: Real GDP numbers show that we are at the bottom of the curve and are expected to rebound. Consumer spending has also stabilized.
Inflation: Inflation remains above the Fed's target BUT it has only been at or below the 2% target 25% of the time since the 1950s. With the consistent printing of money, inflation will always be constant.
Stock Market: The stock market is up 6% year-over-year, and has rebounded 25% since April after a 20% decline earlier in the year.
Foreclosures: Less than 1% of active mortgages are underwater. In Florida, foreclosures and short sales are almost non-existent.
Unemployment: Job growth is slowing, and the unemployment rate is increasing in many states and metro areas. However, Florida’s unemployment rate was 3.7% in June, which is better than the national rate of 4.2%. Jacksonville's rate was 4.2% in June, ranking 7th out of 22 metro areas in Florida.
Income Growth: Florida's income growth is on pace for a 7% increase by the end of the year. Jacksonville’s median household income is $102,500, which is higher than the state average of $95,300. This is a significant +8% increase year-over-year from 2021 to 2025.
The Bottom Line
Based on the forecast, sales are projected to be down about 5% year-over-year in 2025 compared to last year, with projections of around 27,000 sales in 2026.
We need to keep in mind who replaces Jerome Powell at the end of his term in May 2026 will significantly impact rates.
Despite the fluctuations, the Florida Consumer Confidence level remains high, suggesting that buyers are willing to spend —they're just waiting for the right moment. This is leading to higher (but healthy) levels of inventory and slower price growth.
The truth is, there's no "perfect time" to buy a home; the best time is always when you need to and are financially able to.
Special Thank You & Credit ✨
We’d like to extend a heartfelt thank you to Dr. Alex Stewart, Founder of The Market Distillery, for providing the insights and research that shaped this blog. Alex has dedicated his career to helping Realtors turn complex market data into clear, actionable guidance clients can trust. His innovative approach makes “How’s the market?” a conversation of confidence and clarity — and we’re grateful to share that expertise here.